Morgan Stanley estimates the market for humanoid robots at $5 trillion by 2050
English translation from Unibot. Source published 2025-08-14.
A new Morgan Stanley report, "The Global Humanoid Market Model," projects annual humanoid robot hardware revenues of about $4.7 trillion by 2050, roughly double the combined vehicle sales of the world's top 20 automakers in 2024. Add in software, data and services, and the total market size is $5 trillion. The Bank also expects to have over a billion working humanoids worldwide, creating a workforce comparable to India's working population.
The spread of humanoids will be gradual, not explosive. Morgan Stanley forecasts there will be about 13 million units in operation by 2035, primarily on factory floors and warehouses. Reducing prices will be the main driver of demand growth: the cost of one robot will drop from the current $200 thousand to $50 thousand in developed countries by mid-century and to $15 thousand where Chinese supply chains dominate. As the G7 and Chinese workforces age, humanoids will move from futuristic prototypes to practical necessity.
For investors, the bank offers the “Humanoid 100” concept, which represents a map of one hundred public companies producing key components and solutions. The “brains” category covers artificial intelligence computing power, basic models and simulators, with giants such as NVIDIA, Google, Microsoft and Amazon leading the way. The term "body" refers to electro-mechanical components: sensors, batteries and high-precision actuators produced by companies like Harmonic Drive, Nabtesco, Nidec and Rockwell Automation. Finally, integrators are combining both layers into final products - pilot projects have already been launched by players such as Tesla with the Optimus model, Figure 01 and Agility Robotics with the Digit model, demonstrating public manipulation and mobility.
The geography of production can determine the balance of power. Morgan Stanley notes that many key components from Chinese manufacturers already cost about a third of their Western counterparts, making China the global hub for humanoid manufacturing despite continued US and European leadership in AI software and systems integration. These dynamics are reminiscent of the smartphone era and raise questions about supply chain sustainability and data sovereignty, especially as humanoid machines begin to be used in sensitive sectors of the economy.
Investors are offered a step-by-step approach:
Until the 2030s, invest in infrastructure ("mines and shovels") with operating cash flows - GPUs, force-torque sensors and physics-analytical simulators.
In the period from 2030 to 2040, choose integration leaders who control the entire technological chain; leading platform players will be able to earn margins similar to those of the smartphone market, reaching a fleet size of one hundred thousand units. The most attractive shares are Tesla and Figure AI.
By 2050, services will surpass hardware revenues. Skill shops, cloud-based preventive maintenance services, leasing and insurance are expected to develop around the humanoid robot park.
The transition from the episodic role of humanoids in movies to the reality of financial markets is obvious. Morgan Stanley's forecast of a $5 trillion market underscores the scale of the upcoming technology disruption. Diverse investments in the brain-body integrator segments, underpinned by caution regarding political, ethical and logistical risks, appear to be the most sensible strategy for participating in the growing popularity of anthropomorphic machines.